The national security agency has raised the terror threat level in Australia from “possible” to “probable”.
The change means the Australia Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) considers there’s “a greater than 50% chance” of a terrorist attack or a planned attack in the next year.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said ‘probable’ does not mean ‘inevitable’, nor does it mean there’s an “imminent threat”. So, what does it mean?
The advisory system
ASIO’s ‘National Terrorism Threat Advisory System’ “provides advice about the likelihood of an act of terrorism in Australia.”
The agency describes it as “warning tool” for Australians, to inform them about the current “security environment” here and overseas.
The scale has five terror-risk levels: Not expected, Possible, Probably, Expected, and Certain.
Increased threat level
The Government downgraded the terror level to ‘possible’ for the first time in eight years in November 2022.
ASIO has raised the threat level this week to the more serious “probable” following increased violent extremism.
The agency’s chief Mike Burgess flagged an increase in extreme ideologies since the pandemic, in Australia and globally. He said ASIO has investigated eight alleged domestic terror-related incidents, “in the last four months”.
“We are seeing spikes in political polarisation and intolerance, uncivil debate and un-peaceful protests… Trust in institutions is eroding and provocative and inflammatory behaviours are being normalised,” Burgess said.
He noted that ASIO is preparing for more “politically-motivated violence,” which he said would be a result of growing “polarisation, frustration and perceived injustices“.
Burgess also raised concerns about young Australians being “particularly vulnerable” to online extremism and misinformation.
Radicalisation among children
Children’s Commissioner for the Australian Human Rights Commission, Anne Hollonds, told TDA isolated children are more at risk of being radicalised.
“These are kids who often may have disengaged from school. They may have been bullied… [They] end up alone in their room”.
Hollonds said there aren’t proper “guardrails” across social media and gaming platforms “to keep kids safe” online.
Hollonds said frontline support services (which she called “early warning systems”) including education and mental health services need more investment.
“[These services] are well placed to identify concerns, but we need to get them working much better together… and we need to back the parents to get the help for these kids who need it,” Hollonds said.
She noted that schools are “often not fit for purpose” for children with complex needs.
eSafety Commissioner
In a statement, the eSafety Commissioner flagged concerns about misinformation spreading online.
The watchdog said violent extremists “weaponise” technology like live-streaming and algorithms to share harmful material.
“It is of great concern that we do not know the answer to a number of fundamental questions about the systems, processes and resources that [tech companies] have in place to keep Australians safe,” eSafety said.
Dutton’s response
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said ASIO had the Coalition’s support.
“It’s a time for all Australians to pay attention to what’s happening in their local communities… I just encourage people, please, to heed the advice from Mike Burgess, because we do live in a precarious time,” Dutton said.
The next steps
Burgess has urged Australians to remain vigilant, describing the national threat as “significant but not insurmountable”.
“Australians should be aware, but not afraid,” he said.
The Prime Minister said that peaceful expression and debate was, “the essence and purpose of our democracy”.
