Australia’s main energy authority says blackouts could be avoided over the next decade if expected renewable projects are delivered “on time and in full”.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has previously warned Australians to expect more frequent power shortages and blackouts as part of the transition to net zero emissions.
However, its “reliability outlook” has since improved thanks to a boost in renewable projects, rooftop solar, and the delayed closure of Australia’s biggest coal plant.
Here’s the latest.
Net zero
In 2022, the Federal Government legislated a plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
Net zero means balancing how many greenhouse gas emissions enter the atmosphere against what is taken out.
To achieve this, Australia is moving away from fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas, and towards renewable sources of power.
As part of the energy transition, all coal-fired power stations in Australia are due to close by 2040.
Many fossil fuel plants are scheduled to shut down within the coming decade, including the Yallourn coal station in Victoria and the Torrens Island gas facility in South Australia.
Recently, the NSW Government pushed out the closure date for Australia’s biggest coal plant – Eraring – from 2025 to 2027.
Blackouts
Last year, AEMO’s 10-year forecast predicted the transition to net zero could cause “reliability gaps“.
The predicted gaps were blamed on a lack of replacement infrastructure to support the mass retirement of Australia’s coal plants.
These “gaps” could create a risk of power shortages and blackouts due to insufficient renewable energy.
However, “compared to last year’s report,” AEMO now says its reliability outlook “has improved”. So, what’s changed?
New forecast
AEMO pointed to a high rollout of rooftop solar and the Eraring coal plant extension in its improved outlook.
Its CEO Daniel Westerman said the transition to net zero was “well underway,” with 40% of Australia’s energy now coming from renewables.
“Investments in renewable generation and storage continue to increase, and the pipeline of new projects continues to expand,” Westerman said.
AEMO said blackouts would be less likely over the next decade, with continued net zero efforts.
The Federal Government has set a target for 82% of Australia’s energy supply to be powered by renewables by 2030 — more than double the current rate.
However, AEMO said it is “critical” that expected investments in generation, storage and transmission “be delivered on time and in full” to maintain a reliable power supply, and “avoid energy shortfalls.”
“If delays occur to projects already underway or further investment does not materialise, then the outlook for reliability will deteriorate,” Westerman said.
