Why Ukraine launched a surprise offensive into Russia

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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukrainian soldiers now control up to 1,000km² of Russian territory — a marked shift from the way the war began.
ukraine surprise offensive russia

Russia’s war with Ukraine has entered a new phase this week, after Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive into Russian territory at the northern border.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukrainian soldiers now control up to 1,000km² of Russian territory — a marked shift from the way the war began.

It comes as both sides have blamed each other for a fire at a nuclear power plant.

Background

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said he considers Ukraine to be part of Russia. In 2014, he signed documents legally transferring the Crimean peninsula, in Ukraine’s south-east, to Russian control.

On 24 February 2022, Putin announced a “special military operation” into Ukraine. Russian troops crossed the border and fired missiles into cities.

Zelenskyy said the country would defend itself. While Ukraine retook large chunks of its territory in 2022, its counter-offensive then stalled.

Surprise offensive

Ukraine launched a surprise attack in the past week, pushing across its northern border into the Russian regions of Kursk and Belgorod.

It’s the biggest attack on Russian soil since World War II. Thousands of residents have been forced to evacuate.

Zelenskyy ordered the Ukrainian army to advance into these regions because he said they have been used as a launch site for thousands of missile attacks. He said: “It is only fair to destroy Russian terrorists where they are.”

Putin responded by accusing Ukraine of attacking Russia’s civilians, while also “pursuing the destruction of [its] own citizens”.

The Russian President added that Ukraine will “undoubtedly face a strong response, and all the objectives we have set will certainly be achieved”.

Russia has not been able to take back the land from Ukraine in the days since.

The war

Military experts have suggested Ukraine’s northern border attack is a way to distract Russian forces from the frontline of the war, in the east. Putin also said he believes this was the reason for Ukraine’s invasion.

Prior to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Russia’s military had been slowly advancing west, from the frontline in the east.

Zaporizhzhia power plant

Over the weekend, there was also a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The United Nations considers the plant to be in Ukrainian territory. It’s been under Russian control since March 2022.

Russian authorities say the fire was caused by a Ukrainian attack, while Zelenskyy accused “Russian occupiers” of starting the fire.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said it couldn’t yet figure out what had caused the fire. It said there was currently no increase in nuclear radiation in the area.

Human toll

UN data shows last month was the deadliest for Ukrainian civilians since October 2022. At least 219 civilians were killed and over 1,000 were injured, according to data cited by the United Nations.

Neither country has provided updated overall military death tolls, but international estimates suggest both sides have lost tens of thousands of soldiers.

Earlier this year, the UK Ministry of Defence estimated that half a million Russian soldiers had been killed or injured.

NATO

This week, Putin has also repeated his claim that Western powers are using Ukraine to fight Russia indirectly.

At the centre of this claim is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which is a Western military alliance that includes the U.S. and UK.

Last month, NATO agreed to give Ukraine’s war effort €40 billion ($AU64 billion), calling Russia a “direct threat”.

Ukraine has long wanted to join NATO, which Russia has long opposed, and was part of why Russia initially invaded.

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