The Coalition is ahead of Labor for the first time in the polls since its 2022 election loss.
The latest Newspoll, published by The Australian, puts Labor behind on a two-party preferred basis of 51-49 (Coalition-Labor).
Analysts predict a hung parliament (where Labor nor Coalition have a majority) is likely at the next election, which is due by May 2025.
Here’s what that means.
Context
The most common polling number quoted in the media is the two-party preferred.
It gives you two percentages, adding to 100, which tell us who people prefer out of Labor and the Coalition.
Newspoll is one of the most recognised polls in Australian politics. Its surveys are conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights.
Newspoll
The major parties have polled fairly evenly over recent months on a two-party preferred basis.
The latest Newspoll surveyed more than 1,250 people between October 7-11.
51% of respondents said they would prefer a Coalition Government compared to 49% who said Labor.
Labor won the 2022 election on a two-party preferred metric of 52% to the Coalition’s 48%. Anthony Albanese remains preferred Prime Minister, leading Coalition leader Peter Dutton 45 to 37.
Preferences
It’s increasingly rare for an individual candidate to receive more than 50% of their electorate’s ‘first preference’ vote.
Instead, candidates rely onto secure a majority.
For example, eight different parties ran in the Qld seat of Blair at the 2022 Federal election.
Your contribution ensures The Daily Aus can continue doing the work you love.
I want to give $10 monthly to help TDA keep doing the news.
Your details:
Labor did not receive a majority of first preference votes, but it did win the seat. How?
In the seat ofin 2022, Labor won. The LNP received 29%, and the remaining 36% of first preference votes were split across smaller parties like the Greens (12.6%) and One Nation (10%).
Voters listed their preferences 1 to 8. Candidates with the fewest first preference votes get knocked out progressively. These votes are then distributed based on the voter’s preferences. For example, about 80% of people who voted for the Greens preferenced Labor ahead of the LNP.
Labor eventually won on a 55-45% two-party-preferred basis against the LNP after preferences from the six smaller parties were distibuted.
Primary votes
Newspoll also asks respondents to name their highest-ranked political party out of the major and minor parties, as well as independents.
This ‘primary vote’ data can provide a more nuanced insight into the Australian voting landscape
The latest Newspoll shows the Coalition with 38% of the primary vote, compared to Labor’s 31%.
The Greens were on 12% and One Nation went up to 7%. Smaller parties and independents made up the remaining 12%.
The past two years of polls show support for the Albanese Government has consistently decreased
While polls can provide an effective snapshot of a particular mood or time, they are not predictive.
A 2019 Newspoll showed Labor ahead on 52-48 two-party preferred just before the election. Despite this, the Coalition ended up winning.
The next federal election is due by May 2025.
Reaction
Senior Government Ministers, including Murray Watt and Tanya Plibserk, have dismissed concerns about the Newspoll result.
Plibersek told Channel Seven the Government is focused on the “cost of living for ordinary Australians”.
Meanwhile, Nationals leader David Littleproud said Newspoll figures were “encouraging” for the Coalition, saying they reflected anger among voters about the Government’s handling of the economy.
