One Nation secured 22% of the primary vote at South Australia’s state election on Saturday.
However, at the time of publication, One Nation has secured one seat, is likely to win a second, and is ahead in two more, out of 47 total.
Confused? Let’s unpack how voting in the lower house actually works.
Primary vote
The lower house in South Australia (the House of Assembly) has 47 seats.
In order to form government, a party must win a majority of those seats, or negotiate with independents to pass key bills.
To secure a seat, a candidate must win 50% of the vote, either through the primary vote or preferences.
The primary vote means a voter has put a 1 next to the candidate’s name on their ballot. Often, candidates receive less than 50% of the primary vote, which is where preferences come in.
If no-one reaches a majority after the first round, whichever candidate received the fewest first preference votes is eliminated, and a second round of counting begins.
This means anybody who voted #1 for the eliminated candidate has their vote transferred to the person they put in the #2 spot.
That process is repeated until one of the candidates has more than half of the votes.
One Nation
At this election, looking at all 47 seats together, One Nation has secured 22% of the primary vote, so far.
However, because each seat is determined separately in the lower house, a candidate needs that key 50% of the vote in their electorate, rather than a percentage of the whole state’s vote.
At this stage, One Nation candidates have gained one seat, are likely in another, and are ahead in two more, based on the ABC’s preference estimate.
The two seats One Nation is most likely to win are Ngadjuri and Hammond, both previously held by the Liberals.
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Ngadjuri is a rural seat north of Adelaide, encompassing the Clare Valley wine region.
One Nation received 34.5% of the primary vote in the seat, and is projected by the ABC to receive 57% of the votes for the top two candidates (the two-candidate-preferred (TCP) vote).*
Hammond is also rural, located to the south-east of Adelaide.
One Nation secured 27% of the primary, with the ABC estimating 54% of the TCP.*
* At the time of publishing
Upper house
In the Legislative Council (upper house), there are 22 seats, half of which go up for election every four years.
To secure one or more of the 11 seats, a party must receive a specific proportion of the vote.
For example, Labor has won 37.2% of the vote so far, equating to 4.5 of the 11 seats.
This could grow to five seats as counting continues, equal to its 2022 election result.
One Nation has secured 23.9% of the lower house vote, or 2.9 seats. This will likely increase to three seats.
Last election, One Nation secured one seat.
The Liberal Party has received 17.3% of the current vote, or 2.1 likely seats, down from four in 2022.
The Greens have secured 10.9% of the vote, or 1.3 seats. Last election, they secured one seat.
The 2026 numbers are only based on first preference votes so far.
