A new poll has put Pauline Hanson’s One Nation ahead of Labor in primary vote support for the first time ever.
The latest poll conducted by Redbridge Group and Accent Research for the Australian Financial Review (AFR) found 31% of voters would rank One Nation first on their ballot if an election was tomorrow.
Labor was behind One Nation with 28% of those surveyed, while 20% said the Liberal-National Coalition Opposition.
It’s the latest sign of a broader voter revolt against Australia’s major parties.
Here’s how to understand the result.
Opinion polls
In Australia, media companies commission polling firms to conduct research about people’s voting patterns and top concerns.
Polling companies often ask people who they would rank first on their ballot if an election was tomorrow.
Note: This is not how Australia’s election system actually works (we rank all the candidates according to our preferences), but it is usually how polling companies collect data.
Before we unpack the latest poll, a quick note on One Nation.
One Nation
One Nation was founded by Pauline Hanson in 1997. The party has four federal senators, including Hanson.
In May, One Nation won the Farrer by-election in regional NSW, the first time the party has won a seat in the federal House of Representatives.
One Nation’s policies include significantly reducing the number of people allowed to migrate to Australia each year, and walking back the country’s commitments to action on climate change.
This poll
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Last week, Redbridge/Accent Research ran an online survey of 1,005 people. The survey used quotas for age, gender, location, and education based on the 2025 election to make it representative of Australia.
Here’s which parties the respondents said they’d rank first if an election was held tomorrow.
The poll has a margin of error of 3.4%, meaning the figure if you surveyed every Australian could be around three points higher or lower than the published result.
In the same poll, Labor leads over One Nation 51% to 49% on a two-party-preferred basis (after preferences have been distributed.
On the question of preferred Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese won.
Analysis
One Nation has increasingly attracted conservative voters dissatisfied with the Coalition, as seen with the Farrer by-election. Either the Liberals or the Nationals had held the seat since the 1970s, until One Nation won it last month.
The federal budget, handed down on 12 May, does not appear to have helped Labor against One Nation.
A survey by TDA found 67% of young people think the budget will not make their lives better. (Full transparency: This survey was not nationally representative.)
What’s next?
The next federal election must be held by May 2028.
Right before the last federal election in 2025, Redbridge polling showed 8% of voters ranking One Nation first. At the election, 6.4% of voters ranked the party first.
Polls at this stage of a political cycle are widely seen as a measure of voters’ feelings, not a direct prediction of results.
When asked by Sky News whether she should be Prime Minister, Hanson said: "I believe I have the ability to do it".
