One Nation’s popularity has surged since the May 2025 federal election, with recent polling showing the party overtaking the Coalition for the first time in history.
The rise has sparked questions about whether party leader Pauline Hanson could realistically become Australia’s Prime Minister.
While technically possible, it would be difficult for Hanson to assume the role.
Here’s what you need to know.
Pauline Hanson
Hanson first entered federal Parliament in 1996 as an independent member in the House of Representatives.
A year later, she founded the conservative right-wing political party, One Nation.
Over nearly three decades, One Nation has experienced periods of electoral popularity and decline.
Hanson is currently serving as a Senator representing Queensland.
One Nation
One Nation currently holds four seatsin the Senate and one seat in the House of Representatives.
That lower house seat is held by Barnaby Joyce, the former deputy PM and Nationals leader who defected to One Nation late last year.
One Nation‘s platform centres on significantly reducing immigration, with Hanson calling for the annual rate to be cut to 130,000 people in 2025.
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Its website says it is “the only political party to question climate science,” and that it wants to withdraw Australia from the Paris Agreement.
One Nation recorded 6.4% of the primary vote (people ranking them first on the ballot) at the 2025 federal election. Since then, support for the party has more than doubled in some polls, such as Newspoll for The Australian.
A recent Capital Brief poll also showed Hanson ahead of Opposition Leader Sussan Ley as preferred Prime Minister, though both were behind Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Hanson as PM
For Hanson to become Prime Minister, she would need to resign from the Senate, win a House of Representatives seat, and lead a party or coalition to win at least 76 seats in the 150-seat lower house.
At the last election, Labor won 94 seats and the Coalition won 43. One Nation currently has one lower house seat.
This would make it very difficult for the party to gain enough seats at the next federal election to form Government on their own.
Hanson is also currently a Senator. The Prime Minister is almost always a member of the House of Representatives, not the Senate.
While this is not a legal requirement, it is a firmly established tradition that has only been broken once.
In 1968, Senator John Gorton became Prime Minister following the death of Harold Holt. Gorton immediately resigned from the Senate and successfully contested a by-election for Holt’s former seat in the House of Representatives.
Balance of power
When asked if she wants to be Prime Minister, Hanson told The Karl Stefanovic Show she’d “love to take control of it for a while,” but suggested holding the balance of power in the Senate is more achievable.
Holding the balance of power would mean no party wins a majority at the next election, forcing them to rely on One Nation or another minor party topass legislation.
