Tasmania will head to its third election in four years

More than 400,000 Tasmanians will head to the polls this weekend to elect the next state government.

A no-confidence motion against the current Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff triggered the state’s second early election in just over a year.

A proposed AFL stadium, growing debt, and the Spirit of Tasmania ferries have dominated the campaign.

The Liberal Party has been in power in Tasmania since 2014. Polls suggest the state is likely to return another minority government.

Election

Rockliff has led a minority Liberal Government since the state went to an early election in March 2024.

It means he relies on the support of the crossbench — MPs who don’t belong to either the Labor or Liberal parties.

Last month, Labor leader Dean Winter narrowly succeeded in passing a no-confidence vote against Rockliff, citing concerns about a recent budget that estimated overall debt would rise above $10 billion within four years.

A successful vote of no-confidence means a government doesn’t have enough support from MPs to continue its work and stay in power.

Initially, Tasmania’s Governor Barbara Baker said she would “consider all options” before calling an election, but eventually said she believed there was no alternative.

Premier Rockliff called the Labor leader a “wrecker”, blaming him for sending Tasmania to an election three years early that he said “nobody wanted or needed”.

AFL Stadium

In 2023, the AFL and Tasmanian Government signed a deal to secure a team in the league.

As part of the deal, the State Government agreed to build a new waterfront stadium on Macquarie Point in the capital, Hobart.

The “no stadium, no team” provision of the deal sparked controversy over the venue’s cost, which is now expected to reach nearly $1 billion.

It was initially estimated at roughly $750 million, including $375 million of funding from Tasmania’s Government.

The major parties support the stadium, while the Greens and independents have strongly opposed the AFL deal.

Several protests have been held at Macquarie Point in opposition to the proposal.

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A poll of 842 voters by the Australia Institute found 69% of them believed the current deal is unfair to Tasmania, and wanted the State Government to re-negotiate the deal with the AFL.

Ferries

Rockliff has also promised to replace two Spirit of Tasmania ferries, which cross the Bass Strait, with two new ships built in Finland.

The ships were initially slated to arrive in 2024. However, the Devonport terminal (where the Spirit ferries dock) required reconstruction because the new ships wouldn’t fit.

The Government now expects the ferries to be operational from October 2026. Labor has accused the Liberal Party of trying to “gaslight” voters over the ferries’ delays and costs.

Top issues

Health, public housing, and reducing Tasmania’s debt ranked as the most important issues to voters in a YouGov poll conducted at the end of June.

The polling company also asked 1,287 voters about privatising state-owned assets — 47% were opposed, 36% supported, while 17% were unsure.

Earlier this year, a Government-commissioned review advised against selling off state-owned firms, such as Metro Tasmania, to reduce debt.

Voting

Tasmania has a proportional representation system across five seats: Bass, Braddon, Clark, Franklin, and Lyons.

Seven MPs are elected in each seat.

Opinion polling shows it’s unlikely either side will receive enough support to achieve a majority by winning at least 18 of 35 seats.

YouGov’s poll in late June showed Labor ahead of the Liberals (34-31%), while a more recent survey by polling firm DemosAU showed a reversal (35-25 Liberal vs. Labor).

Polling shows an uptick in support for independents across the state.

One of the defeated Liberal MPs at this year’s federal election, Bridget Archer, is running as a candidate in the state seat of Bass.

The Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) ran in the 2024 Tasmania election, but the party will not feature on the ballot at this poll.

Meanwhile, the National Party is running candidates in three regional seats, including two former JLN MPs.