Opinion polls show the Coalition is likely to win more seats than Labor at the upcoming federal election.
A string of polls published over the weekend show a minority government is the most likely outcome.
This would mean neither major party would hold a majority, and they would need to negotiate with crossbenchers – minor parties and independents – to form government.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is yet to call a date for the election, which must be held before 17 May.
Opinion polls
In Australia, media companies commission polling firms to conduct research about people’s voting intentions and top concerns.
For example, News Corp has its Newspoll, conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights, while Nine newspapers use Resolve Strategic.
Australia has a preferential voting system. As such, polling companies gather data about voters’ top choice (primary vote) and then calculate the most likely winner after the flow of preferences to the major parties, called the two-party-preferred basis (2PP).
Trends
At the last election, Labor defeated the Coalition with a record-low primary vote (32.6%).
So far, an average of polls held since the beginning of 2025 shows Labor’s primary vote has dropped to 30.4%.
Meanwhile, the Coalition has boosted its primary vote from 35.7% at the last election to a polling average of 39.3%.
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The Greens are hovering around 12-13% of the primary vote, while support for independents and other minor parties combined is around 18%.
In order to secure a majority, a party needs to win at least 76 seats.
Polling company YouGov published seat-by-seat breakdowns over the weekend.
It showed the Coalition is on track to win approximately 73 seats at the next election, up from its current tally of 55.
Meanwhile, the poll showed Labor winning around 66 seats, down from 78.
If these figures are replicated on polling day, Coalition leader Peter Dutton would be in a stronger position to form a minority government.
Cost of living
YouGov Public Data Director Paul Smith told TDA the main voting issues are the cost of living, housing, grocery prices, and wages.
“People are actually not angry with the Government, but they’re just disappointed,” Smith said.
“People want big economic change.”
“Whether it’s about their wages, being able to afford a house, being able to go to a doctor that bulk bills, they want to see those big changes.”
Do polls matter?
Polls cannot predict the outcome of an election. Instead, they capture a snapshot of voters’ mood.
YouGov accurately predicted the results of recent elections in Spain and the UK.
However, polls wrongly predicted the outcome of the 2019 election in Australia, suggesting Labor would win. Instead, the Scott Morrison-led Coalition surprised most commentators by winning a majority.
